WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 17-10-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
17-10-18 16   16 3   6 13   13 3   5 14   14 7   7 17   15 11   8
16-10-18 17 14.9 17 9 10.9 10 16   16 6   8 14   13 5   5 14   14 7   7
15-10-18 11 15.1 12 9 9.3 10 16 14.9 17 9 10.9 11 16   15 7   10 14   14 5   6
14-10-18 14 17.3 15 7 6.6 10 12 15.1 12 7 9.3 10 16 14.9 15 8 10.9 9 14   15 4   6
13-10-18 23 21.9 21 12 13.9 14 14 17.3 15 4 6.6 9 14 15.1 13 6 9.3 6 15 14.9 14 9 10.9 8
12-10-18 19 18.1 18 17 16.2 17 22 21.9 21 11 13.9 13 13 17.3 14 5 6.6 6 15 15.1 14 8 9.3 8
11-10-18 21 19.2 21 10 12.1 13 18 18.1 20 17 16.2 13 21 21.9 17 11 13.9 14 14 17.3 21 7 6.6 14
09-10-18 8 20.6 11 18 12.7 18 8 19.2 8 21 12.1 19 13 18.1 11 21 16.2 19 11 21.9 13 18 13.9 18
08-10-18 18 10.7 17 10 15.6 11 18 20.6 18 8 12.7 7 21 19.2 19 13 12.1 10 19 18.1 19 11 16.2 9
07-10-18 14 11.7 13 9 8.0 10 18 10.7 17 10 15.6 10 18 20.6 17 8 12.7 7 21 19.2 18 13 12.1 9
06-10-18 11 9.8 10 2 4.1 4 14 11.7 13 9 8.0 10 18 10.7 16 9 15.6 8 18 20.6 17 8 12.7 8
05-10-18 13 14.0 16 7 6.2 7 10 9.8 10 2 4.1 5 13 11.7 13 8 8.0 9 17 10.7 16 9 15.6 8
04-10-18 18 16.7 19 11 12.3 12 12 14.0 15 7 6.2 7 10 9.8 9 3 4.1 5 13 11.7 12 6 8.0 7
03-10-18 17 15.1 17 12 12.4 9 19 16.7 18 11 12.3 12 14 14.0 17 7 6.2 8 10 9.8 11 6 4.1 5
02-10-18 16 15.2 17 6 8.4 8 18 15.1 17 11 12.4 9 18 16.7 17 8 12.3 10 11 14.0 10 6 6.2 6
01-10-18 12 11.4 12 8 8.3 8 16 15.2 17 6 8.4 7 18 15.1 15 11 12.4 10 17 16.7 17 7 12.3 6
30-09-18 14 12.2 13 3 5.2 6 12 11.4 11 8 8.3 7 16 15.2 17 6 8.4 8 17 15.1 15 10 12.4 9
29-09-18 16 14.3 15 7 8.1 6 14 12.2 13 4 5.2 5 12 11.4 11 8 8.3 7 16 15.2 15 8 8.4 7
28-09-18 14 14.1 14 3 4.8 5 16 14.3 15 8 8.1 8 14 12.2 13 4 5.2 6 13 11.4 12 8 8.3 8
27-09-18 20 19.7 21 7 6.7 9 14 14.1 14 3 4.8 6 16 14.3 15 7 8.1 7 14 12.2 13 5 5.2 6
26-09-18 20 17.9 20 11 13.8 10 20 19.7 20 7 6.7 9 14 14.1 14 3 4.8 6 15 14.3 15 7 8.1 7
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 13 13 13 13 11 13 11 12 13 11 10 11 12 12 11 8
% Succ 65.0   65.0 65.0   65.0 57.9   68.4 57.9   63.2 72.2   61.1 55.6   61.1 70.6   70.6 64.7   47.1
Ave Error 2.4   2.1 1.7   1.7 2.3   2.1 2.2   2.1 1.9   2.0 2.3   2.1 2.2   2.0 2.3   3.2
Net Error 0.3   0.5 -0.9   0.1 -0.1   -0.1 -1.0   -0.3 0.4   -0.5 -1.6   -1.1 -0.1   -0.4 -1.4   -1.6
Std Dev 2.8   2.2 1.4   1.5 2.6   2.5 2.0   2.0 1.8   2.0 1.7   1.8 2.6   2.2 1.8   2.3

Updated: 17-10-18 at 12:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
17-10-18 16   14 3   6 13   13 4   5 14   14 7   6 17   15 10   7
16-10-18 17 14.9 15 9 10.9 11 16   16 6   6 13   13 5   6 14   14 7   7
15-10-18 11 15.1 11 9 9.3 10 17 14.9 17 9 10.9 10 16   15 7   7 13   13 6   5
14-10-18 11 17.3 10 8 6.6 9 12 15.1 12 9 9.3 10 16 14.9 17 9 10.9 10 16   15 4   10
13-10-18 22 21.9 21 12 13.9 13 14 17.3 14 4 6.6 7 13 15.1 13 4 9.3 6 16 14.9 14 8 10.9 8
12-10-18 19 18.1 17 17 16.2 16 22 21.9 20 12 13.9 12 13 17.3 13 5 6.6 8 15 15.1 13 7 9.3 6
11-10-18 20 19.2 21 11 12.1 12 18 18.1 18 17 16.2 13 22 21.9 18 11 13.9 15 13 17.3 22 6 6.6 12
10-10-18 22 20.6 18 13 12.7 8 21 19.2 20 11 12.1 11 18 18.1 19 16 16.2 12 21 21.9 18 10 13.9 14
09-10-18 8 17.8 10 18 11.3 18 8 20.6 8 21 12.7 19 13 19.2 12 21 12.1 19 11 18.1 13 18 16.2 17
08-10-18 18 10.7 16 10 15.6 11 18 17.8 17 9 11.3 9 21 20.6 19 13 12.7 12 20 19.2 19 11 12.1 9
07-10-18 13 11.7 12 9 8.0 9 18 10.7 16 11 15.6 11 18 17.8 17 8 11.3 8 21 20.6 19 13 12.7 10
06-10-18 11 9.8 10 1 4.1 4 13 11.7 12 9 8.0 9 18 10.7 16 9 15.6 8 18 17.8 17 8 11.3 6
05-10-18 12 14.0 13 7 6.2 6 11 9.8 10 1 4.1 5 14 11.7 12 8 8.0 10 17 10.7 16 9 15.6 8
04-10-18 17 16.7 16 11 12.3 11 12 14.0 13 7 6.2 7 9 9.8 9 3 4.1 5 13 11.7 13 6 8.0 8
03-10-18 17 15.1 16 12 12.4 9 19 16.7 17 11 12.3 11 13 14.0 16 7 6.2 8 10 9.8 10 4 4.1 5
02-10-18 17 15.2 15 7 8.4 8 18 15.1 17 11 12.4 8 18 16.7 17 9 12.3 11 12 14.0 14 7 6.2 7
01-10-18 13 11.4 12 8 8.3 8 16 15.2 16 5 8.4 7 18 15.1 16 12 12.4 9 18 16.7 17 8 12.3 7
30-09-18 14 12.2 13 4 5.2 5 12 11.4 11 7 8.3 7 16 15.2 18 6 8.4 8 17 15.1 15 9 12.4 9
29-09-18 16 14.3 15 7 8.1 7 14 12.2 13 4 5.2 6 12 11.4 12 7 8.3 8 16 15.2 15 7 8.4 6
28-09-18 15 14.1 14 3 4.8 6 16 14.3 15 7 8.1 9 13 12.2 13 4 5.2 6 13 11.4 11 8 8.3 7
27-09-18 22 19.7 20 7 6.7 9 14 14.1 14 3 4.8 6 16 14.3 15 8 8.1 8 14 12.2 14 4 5.2 6
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 14 15 17 14 12 14 13 14 12 11 11 12 14 12 10 7
% Succ 70.0   75.0 85.0   70.0 63.2   73.7 68.4   73.7 66.7   61.1 61.1   66.7 82.4   70.6 58.8   41.2
Ave Error 2.5   1.8 1.6   1.6 2.4   1.9 2.1   1.9 1.9   2.1 2.3   2.2 1.9   1.7 2.1   2.7
Net Error 0.3   -0.7 -0.5   -0.2 0.2   -0.5 -1.0   -0.5 0.3   -0.2 -1.2   -0.6 0.2   -0.1 -1.8   -1.7
Std Dev 2.4   2.3 1.6   1.8 2.9   2.8 1.8   1.5 2.0   1.8 2.3   2.0 2.0   1.7 1.6   2.0