WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 20-03-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
20-03-19 16   16 8   8 15   16 8   8 14   15 3   4 11   10 1   2
19-03-19 13 11.8 12 7 8.4 7 15   15 8   7 16   17 7   8 14   16 5   7
18-03-19 11 9.0 9 3 5.2 3 13 11.8 13 8 8.4 7 14   15 8   7 15   15 7   8
17-03-19 9 8.0 8 -1 1.8 1 11 9.0 9 3 5.2 5 12 11.8 13 7 8.4 7 16   15 7   7
16-03-19 12 10.8 11 1 1.8 3 9 8.0 8 0 1.8 2 11 9.0 8 1 5.2 2 12 11.8 11 7 8.4 6
15-03-19 11 10.7 11 3 4.2 4 12 10.8 11 2 1.8 3 9 8.0 7 1 1.8 2 10 9.0 8 1 5.2 2
12-03-19 9 10.7 9 4 6.0 4 11 10.7 10 6 4.2 5 11 10.8 10 6 1.8 5 12 8.0 13 4 1.8 4
11-03-19 9 8.2 9 4 5.3 4 8 10.7 9 4 6.0 4 11 10.7 10 4 4.2 5 12 10.8 10 7 1.8 6
10-03-19 6 6.1 6 1 1.1 2 10 8.2 8 5 5.3 3 8 10.7 9 4 6.0 4 9 10.7 10 4 4.2 5
09-03-19 8 8.7 8 1 3.8 3 6 6.1 5 2 1.1 2 9 8.2 8 4 5.3 4 8 10.7 8 4 6.0 4
07-03-19 8 7.5 9 -2 4.4 1 9 8.7 8 4 3.8 5 9 6.1 10 2 1.1 2 6 8.2 8 1 5.3 1
06-03-19 13 10.7 11 4 4.7 7 7 7.5 13 -2 4.4 6 9 8.7 9 4 3.8 1 8 6.1 9 2 1.1 4
04-03-19 10 10.8 9 2 6.7 3 11 10.7 10 5 4.7 5 12 7.5 13 5 4.4 7 8 8.7 8 1 3.8 1
03-03-19 10 9.2 10 3 3.1 4 10 10.8 9 2 6.7 3 10 10.7 10 4 4.7 4 12 7.5 11 4 4.4 5
02-03-19 13 11.7 13 4 5.5 6 10 9.2 10 3 3.1 5 9 10.8 9 3 6.7 4 9 10.7 10 3 4.7 3
01-03-19 9 8.6 10 6 5.8 7 13 11.7 12 4 5.5 6 10 9.2 11 2 3.1 4 9 10.8 9 2 6.7 4
28-02-19 12 8.2 11 4 5.3 4 11 8.6 10 6 5.8 6 12 11.7 11 4 5.5 4 10 9.2 9 3 3.1 4
27-02-19 16 14.6 16 1 3.5 3 11 8.2 11 4 5.3 4 12 8.6 12 6 5.8 7 12 11.7 12 5 5.5 5
26-02-19 17 17.7 16 2 5.8 3 15 14.6 15 2 3.5 3 10 8.2 11 4 5.3 4 12 8.6 13 4 5.8 6
25-02-19 15 15.2 15 2 7.5 3 16 17.7 15 2 5.8 3 14 14.6 15 3 3.5 3 12 8.2 12 4 5.3 3
24-02-19 14 15.0 14 3 3.3 5 14 15.2 14 2 7.5 3 16 17.7 15 3 5.8 3 15 14.6 14 4 3.5 4
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 18 19 12 14 16 16 14 15 14 13 14 12 11 11 11 8
% Succ 90.0   95.0 60.0   70.0 84.2   84.2 73.7   78.9 77.8   72.2 77.8   66.7 64.7   64.7 64.7   47.1
Ave Error 1.1   0.9 2.1   1.7 1.2   1.2 1.8   1.4 1.4   1.7 1.5   1.7 1.9   1.8 2.0   2.0
Net Error 0.6   0.2 -2.1   -0.8 0.5   0.1 -1.5   -0.5 0.6   0.4 -0.9   -0.6 0.6   0.6 -1.0   -0.6
Std Dev 0.8   0.7 1.7   1.1 0.8   1.2 1.6   0.9 1.2   1.3 1.2   0.9 1.1   1.2 1.5   1.0

Updated: 19-03-19 at 9:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
19-03-19 13   12 7   7 15   15 8   8 15   17 7   7 14   15 4   7
18-03-19 11 9.0 10 2 5.2 3 13   13 7   7 14   15 8   6 16   16 7   6
16-03-19 12 8.0 11 1 1.8 3 9 9.0 8 0 5.2 1 11   9 1   3 12   12 7   6
15-03-19 12 10.7 10 3 4.2 4 12 8.0 11 2 1.8 3 9 9.0 8 1 5.2 2 10   8 0   2
14-03-19 12 10.7 11 6 6.0 5 10 10.7 11 3 4.2 4 10 8.0 11 1 1.8 3 8 9.0 7 1 5.2 2
13-03-19 12 10.5 10 6 6.0 5 11 10.7 10 6 6.0 5 11 10.7 13 3 4.2 6 10 8.0 12 2 1.8 3
11-03-19 10 8.0 9 4 5.6 4 9 10.5 9 4 6.0 5 12 10.7 11 6 6.0 5 12 10.7 10 6 4.2 6
10-03-19 6 6.1 5 2 1.1 2 10 8.0 9 4 5.6 3 8 10.5 8 4 6.0 4 11 10.7 10 4 6.0 5
09-03-19 9 8.7 8 1 3.8 2 6 6.1 5 2 1.1 2 9 8.0 8 4 5.6 4 8 10.5 8 4 6.0 4
07-03-19 8 7.5 8 -2 4.4 1 9 8.7 9 4 3.8 4 9 6.1 9 2 1.1 2 7 8.0 9 1 5.6 2
04-03-19 10 10.7 9 1 4.7 2 11 7.5 10 6 4.4 6 13 8.7 13 5 3.8 5 9 6.1 7 -1 1.1 2
03-03-19 10 9.2 9 3 3.1 5 10 10.7 9 1 4.7 3 11 7.5 10 4 4.4 5 13 8.7 7 4 3.8 2
02-03-19 13 11.7 12 4 5.5 6 10 9.2 10 3 3.1 5 9 10.7 9 3 4.7 4 11 7.5 10 4 4.4 3
01-03-19 9 8.6 9 6 5.8 6 13 11.7 12 4 5.5 6 10 9.2 10 3 3.1 4 10 10.7 9 2 4.7 5
28-02-19 9 8.2 10 4 5.3 4 11 8.6 10 6 5.8 6 12 11.7 12 5 5.5 4 11 9.2 9 3 3.1 5
27-02-19 15 14.6 13 1 3.5 4 11 8.2 10 4 5.3 4 11 8.6 11 6 5.8 7 12 11.7 11 5 5.5 6
25-02-19 14 17.7 14 2 5.8 5 16 14.6 15 3 3.5 5 15 8.2 14 2 5.3 4 11 8.6 13 4 5.8 4
24-02-19 16 15.0 14 3 3.3 5 14 17.7 14 2 5.8 4 16 14.6 15 3 3.5 4 14 8.2 14 4 5.3 5
23-02-19 16 13.2 14 4 5.9 6 14 15.0 14 3 3.3 5 14 17.7 14 2 5.8 4 16 14.6 15 3 3.5 4
22-02-19 15 15.1 15 6 6.1 7 16 13.2 15 5 5.9 7 13 15.0 14 3 3.3 5 14 17.7 13 2 5.8 4
19-02-19 10 13.9 9 6 8.3 6 13 15.1 12 7 6.1 6 16 13.2 15 5 5.9 6 15 15.0 14 5 3.3 4
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 16 17 13 16 12 15 16 17 10 9 15 17 10 11 12 15
% Succ 80.0   85.0 65.0   80.0 63.2   78.9 84.2   89.5 55.6   50.0 83.3   94.4 58.8   64.7 70.6   88.2
Ave Error 1.4   1.3 1.7   1.3 1.7   1.4 1.4   1.3 2.2   2.0 1.3   1.3 2.1   2.1 1.8   1.5
Net Error 0.6   -0.4 -1.6   -0.5 0.6   -0.0 -1.0   -0.2 1.1   0.9 -1.1   -0.2 1.0   0.2 -1.3   -0.5
Std Dev 1.1   0.9 1.6   0.8 1.2   0.9 1.4   0.9 1.6   1.4 1.1   0.6 1.1   1.1 1.2   0.8