Forecast Accuracy Report on Temperature

Forecast Accuracy Report on Temperature


Here at Leavening Weather Station we're using a customised version of WXSim Professional to produce our weather forecasts. Our forecast data is collected each hour from sources such as weather buoys, weather balloons and weather stations up to 1000 miles from Leavening itself.

To this is added the information from our own weather station including information about the current conditions. This data is then processed through complex forecast modelling software to give our very own forecasts carried out automatically at 5am, 10am, 3pm and 8pm. As it takes time for all the relevant data to be collated and processed, the forecast usually appears on our web pages around 45 minutes later.

Our forecasts are then compared to those from YrNo (click here for more information) for the relevant time period.

The purpose of the Forecast Accuracy Report is to compare our own WXSIM forecast with the NW forecast and actual recorded conditions. Four daily comparisons are run and the 'winner' in terms of temperature accuracy gets coloured blue. The script also calculates the overall forecast performance and standard deviation from the mean (average) temperature. Bear in mind that YrNo are using >£1m of equipment vs our £2k.

    Leavening Weather Station Forecast Comparison

    Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS), YrNo Forecast (NW)
    Early Morning Forecast
    Updated: 22-02-19 at 5:00 am
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    22-02-19 16   15 6   6 15   15 5   7 13   14 4   4 14   14 3   3
    21-02-19 16 13.9 15 4 8.3 4 15   15 6   5 16   15 6   7 14   13 3   3
    19-02-19 10 11.0 10 6 7.9 6 13 13.9 12 7 8.3 6 16   14 6   5 16   14 6   3
    18-02-19 11 9.7 10 4 6.1 3 9 11.0 10 6 7.9 7 12 13.9 13 7 8.3 8 16   15 6   6
    17-02-19 13 12.2 13 6 5.9 7 12 9.7 11 4 6.1 2 10 11.0 9 6 7.9 6 12 13.9 11 6 8.3 7
    16-02-19 12 12.3 12 7 7.8 6 13 12.2 13 6 5.9 6 12 9.7 11 4 6.1 2 10 11.0 9 6 7.9 7
    15-02-19 13 11.5 12 6 6.5 5 13 12.3 13 6 7.8 4 13 12.2 13 6 5.9 5 12 9.7 11 3 6.1 3
    14-02-19 12 10.3 11 2 4.2 2 12 11.5 12 6 6.5 3 13 12.3 13 6 7.8 3 13 12.2 13 5 5.9 4
    13-02-19 11 10.2 11 3 3.7 3 12 10.3 11 2 4.2 2 12 11.5 12 6 6.5 5 13 12.3 12 7 7.8 5
    12-02-19 11 9.6 10 6 7.1 5 12 10.2 11 3 3.7 2 12 10.3 11 2 4.2 2 13 11.5 12 4 6.5 5
    11-02-19 8 7.2 8 1 2.1 1 11 9.6 9 6 7.1 5 11 10.2 11 2 3.7 3 11 10.3 11 2 4.2 3
    10-02-19 8 6.6 7 1 0.9 2 8 7.2 7 1 2.1 1 11 9.6 9 5 7.1 6 12 10.2 11 2 3.7 2
    08-02-19 11 8.4 9 5 3.3 4 8 6.6 8 1 0.9 3 8 7.2 10 0 2.1 6 6 9.6 9 -1 7.1 2
    07-02-19 7 6.8 9 3 3.1 4 11 8.4 8 4 3.3 3 8 6.6 10 1 0.9 6 8 7.2 9 0 2.1 2
    06-02-19 9 7.3 8 3 4.5 3 8 6.8 8 3 3.1 3 11 8.4 10 6 3.3 6 9 6.6 9 2 0.9 2
    05-02-19 7 6.7 8 3 4.7 5 9 7.3 8 3 4.5 4 8 6.8 8 3 3.1 4 10 8.4 10 6 3.3 8
    04-02-19 8 8.4 9 -2 2.2 0 7 6.7 7 3 4.7 5 9 7.3 8 3 4.5 3 8 6.8 8 3 3.1 4
    03-02-19 6 3.3 4 3 2.6 3 8 8.4 8 -2 2.2 0 7 6.7 7 5 4.7 5 9 7.3 8 2 4.5 3
    02-02-19 4 2.1 4 -5 -3.1 -4 5 3.3 4 1 2.6 1 7 8.4 7 -1 2.2 1 7 6.7 8 3 4.7 4
    31-01-19 4 1.7 2 -2 -1.7 -1 5 2.1 4 -1 -3.1 -1 4 3.3 5 -2 2.6 -2 4 8.4 4 -1 2.2 2
    30-01-19 3 2.3 3 -4 -4.7 -4 3 1.7 3 -2 -1.7 -1 4 2.1 4 1 -3.1 0 4 3.3 4 -1 2.6 -1
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 16 19 16 15 16 19 15 10 16 16 10 10 13 14 7 12
    % Succ 80.0   95.0 80.0   75.0 84.2   100.0 78.9   52.6 88.9   88.9 55.6   55.6 76.5   82.4 41.2   70.6
    Ave Error 1.3   0.8 1.4   1.5 1.4   0.9 1.3   1.7 1.3   1.3 1.8   2.3 1.6   1.4 2.4   1.9
    Net Error 1.1   0.7 -1.1   -0.9 1.0   0.4 -1.0   -1.1 0.8   0.8 -1.0   -0.5 0.3   0.2 -1.9   -1.1
    Std Dev 0.7   0.5 1.2   0.9 0.6   0.4 0.9   1.2 0.6   0.8 0.9   1.4 0.7   0.7 1.6   1.3

    Midday Forecast
    Updated: 19-02-19 at 12:00 pm
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    19-02-19 10   9 6   6 13   12 7   6 16   15 5   6 15   14 5   4
    18-02-19 11 9.7 10 4 6.1 3 10   10 6   6 12   13 7   7 16   15 6   5
    17-02-19 13 12.2 13 6 5.9 6 11 9.7 11 4 6.1 2 9   9 6   6 12   11 6   7
    16-02-19 13 12.3 13 7 7.8 6 13 12.2 13 6 5.9 6 11 9.7 11 4 6.1 2 9   10 6   7
    15-02-19 12 11.5 11 7 6.5 6 12 12.3 13 6 7.8 5 13 12.2 13 6 5.9 6 12 9.7 11 3 6.1 3
    14-02-19 11 10.3 9 2 4.2 3 13 11.5 12 5 6.5 4 13 12.3 13 6 7.8 5 12 12.2 13 6 5.9 5
    12-02-19 10 10.2 9 6 3.7 6 12 10.3 11 3 4.2 4 12 11.5 11 2 6.5 4 12 12.3 12 6 7.8 6
    11-02-19 9 7.2 8 1 2.1 1 11 10.2 9 6 3.7 5 11 10.3 11 3 4.2 3 11 11.5 11 2 6.5 3
    09-02-19 12 6.6 9 1 0.9 4 8 7.2 7 0 2.1 2 8 10.2 7 1 3.7 0 11 10.3 9 4 4.2 7
    08-02-19 13 10.8 10 5 3.9 5 9 6.6 9 1 0.9 2 7 7.2 7 2 2.1 2 7 10.2 6 -1 3.7 0
    07-02-19 10 6.8 9 3 3.1 4 11 10.8 8 5 3.9 3 8 6.6 10 2 0.9 6 7 7.2 9 0 2.1 2
    06-02-19 11 7.3 9 3 4.5 4 8 6.8 8 3 3.1 3 11 10.8 10 5 3.9 6 9 6.6 9 2 0.9 2
    05-02-19 7 6.7 7 2 4.7 4 9 7.3 8 3 4.5 4 8 6.8 8 3 3.1 3 11 10.8 10 6 3.9 6
    04-02-19 10 8.4 9 -2 2.2 1 7 6.7 7 3 4.7 6 9 7.3 8 3 4.5 3 8 6.8 7 3 3.1 3
    03-02-19 4 3.3 4 3 2.6 2 8 8.4 9 -2 2.2 0 7 6.7 7 3 4.7 5 8 7.3 9 3 4.5 2
    02-02-19 3 2.1 3 -4 -3.1 -4 6 3.3 5 2 2.6 1 7 8.4 8 -1 2.2 0 7 6.7 7 4 4.7 5
    01-02-19 3 1.7 2 -1 -1.7 0 4 2.1 4 -4 -3.1 -4 5 3.3 5 1 2.6 3 7 8.4 8 -1 2.2 1
    31-01-19 2 0.2 1 -2 -2.7 -1 4 1.7 4 -1 -1.7 -1 4 2.1 5 -3 -3.1 -2 5 3.3 4 0 2.6 2
    30-01-19 3 2.3 2 -5 -4.7 -3 4 0.2 3 -2 -2.7 1 4 1.7 4 0 -1.7 -1 4 2.1 5 -1 -3.1 -1
    29-01-19 3 1.9 3 -4 -1.9 -1 3 2.3 3 -5 -4.7 -3 4 0.2 3 0 -2.7 0 4 1.7 3 1 -1.7 1
    28-01-19 4 3.5 4 -2 -0.4 -1 4 1.9 4 -3 -1.9 -2 4 2.3 2 -4 -4.7 -2 3 0.2 3 1 -2.7 1
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 16 18 14 17 14 14 15 14 15 13 13 9 12 13 7 8
    % Succ 80.0   90.0 70.0   85.0 73.7   73.7 78.9   73.7 83.3   72.2 72.2   50.0 70.6   76.5 41.2   47.1
    Ave Error 1.5   0.9 1.3   1.3 1.4   1.3 1.3   1.4 1.3   1.3 1.6   1.9 1.3   1.4 2.1   1.9
    Net Error 1.5   0.5 -0.7   0.1 1.3   0.9 -0.7   -0.3 0.9   0.7 -0.7   -0.2 0.6   0.5 -0.7   -0.2
    Std Dev 1.3   0.6 1.0   0.8 0.9   0.8 0.9   1.1 0.6   0.9 1.1   1.4 0.9   1.0 1.3   1.1

    Mid Afternoon Forecast
    Updated: 21-02-19 at 5:00 pm
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    21-02-19 4   6 15   15 6   6 14   15 4   5 14   14 5   5 15   15
    20-02-19 8 7.9 6 16 11.0 15 5   5 15   14 6   5 15   14 6   6 13   13
    19-02-19 6 5.9 6 13 8.9 12 7 7.9 6 16 11.0 15 5   6 16   14 5   5 15   15
    18-02-19 4 6.1 4 10 9.7 10 6 5.9 6 13 8.9 12 7 7.9 7 16 11.0 14 6   6 17   15
    17-02-19 n/a 5.9 13 6 12.2 6 12 6.1 11 4 9.7 2 9 5.9 9 6 8.9 6 12 7.9 11 7 11.0 7
    16-02-19 7 12.3 6 14 7.8 13 6 5.9 6 12 12.2 10 4 6.1 3 9 9.7 9 6 5.9 6 12 8.9 11
    14-02-19 2 6.5 2 13 11.5 12 4 12.3 4 13 7.8 14 6 5.9 4 12 12.2 13 6 6.1 5 12 9.7 11
    12-02-19 6 3.7 6 11 10.2 11 3 6.5 2 12 11.5 11 2 12.3 2 12 7.8 12 6 5.9 2 13 12.2 12
    11-02-19 9 2.1 8 1 7.2 1 11 3.7 9 6 10.2 5 11 6.5 11 3 11.5 3 11 12.3 11 2 7.8 3
    10-02-19 7 6.6 6 0 0.9 2 8 2.1 8 0 7.2 1 11 3.7 9 6 10.2 5 11 6.5 11 2 11.5 2
    09-02-19 1 8.4 3 8 3.3 7 0 6.6 1 8 0.9 7 1 2.1 1 11 7.2 10 4 3.7 6 12 10.2 12
    08-02-19 n/a 3.9 10 5 10.8 5 9 8.4 9 1 3.3 2 7 6.6 7 2 0.9 2 7 2.1 6 -1 7.2 0
    07-02-19 12 6.8 9 3 3.1 4 11 3.9 8 5 10.8 3 9 8.4 10 2 3.3 6 7 6.6 9 0 0.9 2
    06-02-19 11 7.3 9 3 4.5 4 7 6.8 8 3 3.1 3 11 3.9 10 5 10.8 6 9 8.4 9 2 3.3 2
    05-02-19 3 6.7 3 9 4.7 9 3 7.3 4 8 4.5 8 3 6.8 3 11 3.1 10 6 3.9 6 9 10.8 9
    04-02-19 -2 2.2 -1 7 8.4 7 3 6.7 5 9 4.7 8 2 7.3 3 8 4.5 7 3 6.8 3 9 3.1 9
    03-02-19 3 2.6 2 8 3.3 9 -2 2.2 0 7 8.4 7 4 6.7 5 8 4.7 9 3 7.3 3 8 4.5 8
    02-02-19 -5 -3.1 -4 6 2.1 5 2 2.6 2 7 3.3 8 -1 2.2 0 7 8.4 8 4 6.7 5 9 4.7 8
    01-02-19 -1 -1.7 0 4 1.7 4 -4 -3.1 -4 5 2.1 5 1 2.6 3 7 3.3 8 -1 2.2 1 7 8.4 8
    31-01-19 -3 -2.7 -3 4 0.2 4 -1 -1.7 -1 4 1.7 5 -3 -3.1 -2 5 2.1 4 0 2.6 3 6 3.3 6
    30-01-19 -4 -4.7 -4 4 2.3 3 -2 -2.7 0 4 0.2 4 0 -1.7 -1 4 1.7 4 -1 -3.1 -2 4 2.1 3
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 8 9 8 8 9 9 4 4 8 9 5 5 7 8 7 8
    % Succ 40.0   45.0 40.0   40.0 47.4   47.4 21.1   21.1 44.4   50.0 27.8   27.8 41.2   47.1 41.2   47.1
    Ave Error 2.8   2.9 3.3   3.0 3.2   2.9 3.6   3.9 3.1   2.9 3.5   3.3 2.2   2.2 3.5   3.0
    Net Error -0.5   -0.1 1.1   1.0 -0.2   -0.2 0.8   0.4 -0.3   -0.3 0.7   0.8 0.1   0.2 -0.4   -0.4
    Std Dev 2.2   2.2 2.0   2.0 2.7   2.2 2.1   2.2 2.6   2.3 2.2   2.0 1.7   1.3 2.4   2.3

    Night Time Forecast
    Updated: 21-02-19 at 9:00 pm
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    21-02-19 4   6 16   15 6   7 14   15 5   5 13   14 4   4 14   15
    20-02-19 8 7.9 7 16 11.0 16 4   4 15   14 6   5 16   14 6   6 13   12
    17-02-19 6 5.9 6 11 8.9 11 5 7.9 3 9 11.0 10 6   6 12   11 6   6 16   14
    16-02-19 7 7.8 7 13 12.3 13 6 5.9 6 11 8.9 10 4 7.9 3 9 11.0 9 6   6 12   11
    15-02-19 7 6.5 6 12 11.5 13 7 7.8 5 14 12.3 13 6 5.9 6 12 8.9 11 4 7.9 2 10 11.0 10
    14-02-19 2 4.2 3 13 10.3 12 6 6.5 5 13 11.5 13 6 7.8 4 13 12.3 13 6 5.9 5 12 8.9 11
    13-02-19 3 3.7 3 12 10.2 11 2 4.2 3 13 10.3 12 6 6.5 3 12 11.5 12 6 7.8 3 13 12.3 12
    12-02-19 6 7.1 7 11 9.6 11 3 3.7 3 12 10.2 11 2 4.2 2 12 10.3 12 5 6.5 2 13 11.5 12
    11-02-19 1 2.1 2 11 7.2 10 6 7.1 5 12 9.6 11 3 3.7 3 11 10.2 11 2 4.2 3 13 10.3 12
    10-02-19 0 0.9 1 8 6.6 8 1 2.1 1 11 7.2 9 6 7.1 4 11 9.6 11 2 3.7 2 11 10.2 11
    09-02-19 1 3.3 3 8 8.4 7 1 0.9 1 8 6.6 7 1 2.1 1 11 7.2 10 6 7.1 6 12 9.6 12
    08-02-19 4 3.9 5 9 10.8 9 1 3.3 2 8 8.4 6 0 0.9 2 7 6.6 6 -1 2.1 0 10 7.2 8
    07-02-19 n/a 3.1 9 3 6.8 4 11 3.9 8 6 10.8 3 8 3.3 10 1 8.4 6 8 0.9 9 0 6.6 2
    06-02-19 n/a 7.3 9 3 4.5 4 8 3.1 8 3 6.8 3 11 3.9 10 4 10.8 6 8 3.3 9 1 8.4 2
    05-02-19 2 6.7 4 9 4.7 9 3 7.3 5 7 4.5 8 3 3.1 3 11 6.8 10 6 3.9 6 9 10.8 9
    04-02-19 -2 2.2 -1 7 8.4 7 2 6.7 5 9 4.7 8 3 7.3 3 8 4.5 7 3 3.1 3 9 6.8 8
    03-02-19 3 2.6 3 8 3.3 9 -2 2.2 0 6 8.4 7 3 6.7 5 9 4.7 9 3 7.3 4 8 4.5 9
    02-02-19 -5 -3.1 -4 6 2.1 5 3 2.6 3 8 3.3 8 -2 2.2 0 7 8.4 8 5 6.7 4 9 4.7 8
    01-02-19 -1 -1.7 -1 4 1.7 4 -5 -3.1 -4 5 2.1 5 1 2.6 3 7 3.3 8 -1 2.2 2 7 8.4 8
    31-01-19 -3 -2.7 -2 4 0.2 4 -1 -1.7 1 4 1.7 4 -4 -3.1 -2 5 2.1 4 1 2.6 2 6 3.3 6
    30-01-19 -4 -4.7 -4 4 2.3 3 -2 -2.7 0 5 0.2 4 -1 -1.7 -1 4 1.7 4 -2 -3.1 -2 4 2.1 4
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 14 17 10 11 11 10 6 10 11 9 8 9 9 8 7 10
    % Succ 70.0   85.0 50.0   55.0 57.9   52.6 31.6   52.6 61.1   50.0 44.4   50.0 52.9   47.1 41.2   58.8
    Ave Error 1.3   1.1 2.5   2.3 2.1   2.0 2.8   2.4 2.2   2.4 2.8   2.2 2.4   2.7 2.8   2.1
    Net Error -1.0   -0.0 1.6   1.5 -0.7   -0.4 1.3   0.7 -0.8   -0.6 0.9   1.0 -0.7   -0.7 0.6   0.4
    Std Dev 1.3   1.4 1.4   1.4 1.9   1.4 1.1   1.7 1.9   1.9 1.9   1.2 1.7   2.1 1.7   1.6

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