Forecast Accuracy Report on Temperature

Forecast Accuracy Report on Temperature


Here at Leavening Weather Station we're using a customised version of WXSim Professional to produce our weather forecasts. Our forecast data is collected each hour from sources such as weather buoys, weather balloons and weather stations up to 1000 miles from Leavening itself.

To this is added the information from our own weather station including information about the current conditions. This data is then processed through complex forecast modelling software to give our very own forecasts carried out automatically at 5am, 10am, 3pm and 8pm. As it takes time for all the relevant data to be collated and processed, the forecast usually appears on our web pages around 45 minutes later.

Our forecasts are then compared to those from YrNo (click here for more information) for the relevant time period.

The purpose of the Forecast Accuracy Report is to compare our own WXSIM forecast with the NW forecast and actual recorded conditions. Four daily comparisons are run and the 'winner' in terms of temperature accuracy gets coloured blue. The script also calculates the overall forecast performance and standard deviation from the mean (average) temperature. Bear in mind that YrNo are using >£1m of equipment vs our £2k.

    Leavening Weather Station Forecast Comparison

    Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS), YrNo Forecast (NW)
    Early Morning Forecast
    Updated: 14-12-17 at 5:00 am
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    14-12-17 4   5 0   2 5   6 -2   0 4   4 -3   -1 6   7 2   7
    13-12-17 6 4.7 6 1 0.3 2 4   5 -1   1 5   6 -2   0 3   4 -4   -1
    12-12-17 2 2.2 3 1 1.2 2 6 4.7 7 0 0.3 2 4   5 -1   0 5   5 -2   0
    11-12-17 3 1.2 3 -3 -1.5 -1 2 2.2 3 -1 1.2 2 6 4.7 6 -1 0.3 1 3   4 -2   2
    10-12-17 3 0.7 3 -5 -2.6 -1 2 1.2 3 -3 -1.5 -1 3 2.2 3 -1 1.2 0 5 4.7 7 1 0.3 2
    09-12-17 3 0.8 3 -5 -0.7 -2 2 0.7 2 -1 -2.6 1 3 1.2 3 -1 -1.5 -1 3 2.2 3 -2 1.2 1
    08-12-17 3 1.9 3 -3 -1.1 0 3 0.8 3 -4 -0.7 -2 3 0.7 3 0 -2.6 1 3 1.2 4 -2 -1.5 0
    07-12-17 12 11.0 12 -2 0.3 2 3 1.9 3 -3 -1.1 1 3 0.8 3 -3 -0.7 -1 2 0.7 2 -1 -2.6 0
    06-12-17 10 9.4 10 9 8.7 9 12 11.0 12 -2 0.3 2 3 1.9 3 -3 -1.1 1 3 0.8 3 -3 -0.7 -1
    05-12-17 8 7.3 9 5 6.7 7 11 9.4 10 9 8.7 9 11 11.0 13 -2 0.3 2 3 1.9 3 -2 -1.1 0
    04-12-17 8 7.9 7 2 5.4 3 8 7.3 8 6 6.7 6 11 9.4 10 9 8.7 9 11 11.0 13 -1 0.3 2
    03-12-17 7 8.2 8 0 1.8 2 8 7.9 8 2 5.4 4 8 7.3 8 5 6.7 5 9 9.4 10 6 8.7 5
    02-12-17 3 5.3 1 7 4.7 6 3 8.2 4 8 1.8 8 1 7.9 3 9 5.4 8 2 7.3 3 7 6.7 8
    01-12-17 6 1.6 6 2 3.0 2 7 5.3 7 3 4.7 5 7 8.2 9 2 1.8 5 9 7.9 9 3 5.4 3
    30-11-17 3 1.2 3 2 0.5 1 5 1.6 5 2 3.0 2 7 5.3 6 3 4.7 3 7 8.2 7 3 1.8 3
    29-11-17 6 4.1 4 -1 0.1 0 3 1.2 0 2 0.5 0 4 1.6 1 2 3.0 0 7 5.3 4 4 4.7 1
    28-11-17 6 4.2 6 3 2.2 4 5 4.1 6 -1 0.1 1 4 1.2 4 1 0.5 2 5 1.6 5 2 3.0 3
    27-11-17 7 7.7 8 0 1.9 3 6 4.2 7 2 2.2 3 4 4.1 6 -1 0.1 2 4 1.2 5 1 0.5 2
    26-11-17 7 5.7 5 3 2.9 1 8 7.7 7 2 1.9 4 6 4.2 5 1 2.2 2 4 4.1 3 -1 0.1 0
    25-11-17 6 4.5 5 1 1.5 2 6 5.7 6 2 2.9 2 7 7.7 8 2 1.9 4 7 4.2 7 3 2.2 5
    24-11-17 6 6.0 6 -2 -0.4 1 6 4.5 5 1 1.5 2 6 5.7 6 1 2.9 3 7 7.7 7 2 1.9 5
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 16 16 15 19 16 14 14 15 13 14 13 12 12 10 13 11
    % Succ 80.0   80.0 75.0   95.0 84.2   73.7 73.7   78.9 72.2   77.8 72.2   66.7 70.6   58.8 76.5   64.7
    Ave Error 1.4   1.4 1.6   1.1 1.4   1.5 1.6   1.4 1.7   1.4 1.5   1.6 1.6   1.9 1.3   1.7
    Net Error 1.0   0.8 -1.0   0.4 0.9   0.9 -0.6   0.8 0.7   0.8 -0.6   0.7 0.7   0.9 -0.6   0.5
    Std Dev 0.9   1.2 1.0   0.6 1.2   1.0 1.4   1.3 1.4   1.0 0.9   0.9 1.2   0.9 0.8   1.0

    Midday Forecast
    Updated: 14-12-17 at 12:00 pm
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    14-12-17 4   4 1   2 6   6 -2   0 3   4 -3   -1 7   7 4   7
    13-12-17 5 4.7 5 0 0.3 1 4   4 -2   0 5   6 -2   0 3   4 -3   -1
    12-12-17 2 2.2 1 1 1.2 0 5 4.7 5 0 0.3 2 4   5 -1   0 4   5 -2   0
    11-12-17 1 1.2 1 -4 -1.5 -2 2 2.2 3 -1 1.2 2 6 4.7 6 -1 0.3 2 4   5 -1   2
    10-12-17 2 0.7 1 -4 -2.6 0 2 1.2 3 -3 -1.5 -1 2 2.2 3 -1 1.2 1 5 4.7 7 0 0.3 1
    09-12-17 2 0.8 1 -4 -0.7 -2 2 0.7 2 -3 -2.6 -1 3 1.2 2 -1 -1.5 -1 3 2.2 3 -1 1.2 0
    08-12-17 3 1.9 2 -3 -1.1 -1 3 0.8 3 -5 -0.7 -2 2 0.7 2 -1 -2.6 0 3 1.2 3 -3 -1.5 0
    07-12-17 8 11.0 8 -2 0.3 2 3 1.9 3 -3 -1.1 0 3 0.8 3 -3 -0.7 -1 2 0.7 2 -1 -2.6 1
    06-12-17 10 9.4 10 9 8.7 9 12 11.0 11 -2 0.3 2 3 1.9 3 -3 -1.1 1 3 0.8 3 -4 -0.7 -2
    05-12-17 8 7.3 7 5 6.7 5 10 9.4 10 9 8.7 9 11 11.0 13 -1 0.3 2 3 1.9 3 -3 -1.1 0
    04-12-17 8 7.9 6 2 5.4 3 8 7.3 8 5 6.7 5 11 9.4 10 9 8.7 9 11 11.0 12 -1 0.3 3
    03-12-17 10 8.2 8 0 1.8 2 8 7.9 7 2 5.4 2 8 7.3 8 5 6.7 5 9 9.4 10 6 8.7 9
    02-12-17 6 5.3 5 3 4.7 4 7 8.2 8 0 1.8 2 8 7.9 8 2 5.4 3 7 7.3 8 4 6.7 5
    01-12-17 4 3.0 4 2 1.6 2 7 5.3 7 4 4.7 5 8 8.2 8 2 1.8 6 9 7.9 9 3 5.4 3
    30-11-17 3 1.2 2 2 0.5 1 6 3.0 5 2 1.6 2 7 5.3 6 3 4.7 3 7 8.2 8 2 1.8 3
    29-11-17 5 4.1 3 -1 0.1 -1 3 1.2 0 2 0.5 -2 4 3.0 2 1 1.6 0 7 5.3 4 3 4.7 0
    28-11-17 6 4.2 5 3 2.2 1 6 4.1 2 -1 0.1 -1 3 1.2 1 2 0.5 -1 5 3.0 2 2 1.6 0
    27-11-17 8 7.7 7 0 1.9 3 6 4.2 5 1 2.2 3 4 4.1 5 -1 0.1 1 4 1.2 2 1 0.5 1
    26-11-17 7 5.7 5 2 2.9 2 7 7.7 6 1 1.9 4 6 4.2 5 2 2.2 2 5 4.1 3 -1 0.1 0
    25-11-17 6 4.5 4 1 1.5 1 7 5.7 4 2 2.9 1 7 7.7 6 2 1.9 4 6 4.2 5 2 2.2 2
    24-11-17 8 6.0 6 -2 -0.4 1 6 4.5 5 1 1.5 2 6 5.7 6 2 2.9 3 8 7.7 7 3 1.9 4
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 19 19 16 18 17 17 15 16 17 17 15 13 15 15 12 12
    % Succ 95.0   95.0 80.0   90.0 89.5   89.5 78.9   84.2 94.4   94.4 83.3   72.2 88.2   88.2 70.6   70.6
    Ave Error 1.1   0.7 1.5   1.0 1.2   1.1 1.4   1.3 1.0   0.9 1.3   1.4 1.2   1.1 1.5   1.6
    Net Error 0.8   -0.3 -1.2   -0.1 1.0   0.3 -1.2   0.0 0.9   0.6 -0.8   0.4 1.0   0.6 -1.0   0.0
    Std Dev 0.7   0.7 0.9   0.7 0.7   0.6 1.0   0.8 0.7   0.5 0.8   0.9 0.6   0.5 0.8   1.1

    Mid Afternoon Forecast
    Updated: 13-12-17 at 5:00 pm
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    13-12-17 0   1 4   4 -1   2 5   6 -2   0 3   4 -3   -1 4   5
    12-12-17 1 1.2 2 5 2.2 6 1   2 4   5 -1   0 4   5 -2   0 3   4
    11-12-17 -4 -1.5 -2 2 1.2 3 1 1.2 2 6 2.2 6 -1   2 4   4 -1   2 4   6
    10-12-17 -4 -2.6 0 2 0.7 3 -3 -1.5 -1 2 1.2 3 -1 1.2 0 5 2.2 6 1   2 3   4
    09-12-17 -4 -0.7 -2 2 0.8 2 -3 -2.6 -1 3 0.7 2 -2 -1.5 0 3 1.2 4 -1 1.2 1 5 2.2 6
    08-12-17 -3 -1.1 -1 3 1.9 3 -5 -0.7 -2 3 0.8 3 -1 -2.6 1 3 0.7 3 -2 -1.5 0 2 1.2 3
    07-12-17 -2 0.3 1 3 11.0 3 -3 -1.1 0 3 1.9 3 -3 -0.7 -1 2 0.8 4 -1 -2.6 2 3 0.7 3
    06-12-17 9 8.7 9 12 9.4 12 -2 0.3 2 3 11.0 3 -3 -1.1 1 3 1.9 3 -3 -0.7 0 1 0.8 3
    05-12-17 5 6.7 5 10 7.3 10 9 8.7 9 12 9.4 12 -1 0.3 2 3 11.0 3 -3 -1.1 0 3 1.9 3
    04-12-17 2 5.4 4 8 7.9 8 5 6.7 6 11 7.3 10 9 8.7 9 11 9.4 13 -1 0.3 2 3 11.0 3
    03-12-17 0 1.8 2 8 8.2 8 2 5.4 3 8 7.9 8 5 6.7 5 10 7.3 10 6 8.7 9 8 9.4 10
    02-12-17 3 4.7 4 7 5.3 8 1 1.8 2 8 8.2 8 2 5.4 4 8 7.9 8 4 6.7 5 9 7.3 10
    01-12-17 1 1.6 2 7 3.0 6 4 4.7 5 8 5.3 8 3 1.8 3 9 8.2 8 3 5.4 3 8 7.9 8
    30-11-17 1 0.5 1 6 1.2 5 2 1.6 2 7 3.0 6 3 4.7 4 7 5.3 8 2 1.8 4 9 8.2 9
    29-11-17 -1 0.1 1 3 4.1 4 2 0.5 2 5 1.2 5 1 1.6 3 7 3.0 6 3 4.7 3 9 5.3 8
    28-11-17 3 2.2 1 6 4.2 2 -1 0.1 -1 3 4.1 0 2 0.5 -1 5 1.2 2 2 1.6 0 6 3.0 4
    27-11-17 0 1.9 1 6 7.7 6 3 2.2 4 5 4.2 6 -1 0.1 1 4 4.1 4 2 0.5 2 5 1.2 6
    26-11-17 3 2.9 2 7 5.7 8 1 1.9 3 6 7.7 7 2 2.2 4 5 4.2 6 -1 0.1 2 4 4.1 5
    25-11-17 1 1.5 1 6 4.5 5 2 2.9 0 7 5.7 7 2 1.9 4 6 7.7 6 2 2.2 2 4 4.2 3
    24-11-17 -2 -0.4 1 6 6.0 5 1 1.5 2 6 4.5 6 2 2.9 2 8 5.7 8 3 1.9 5 7 7.7 7
    23-11-17 -1 1.4 3 6 13.1 6 -1 -0.4 1 6 6.0 5 2 1.5 2 7 4.5 6 2 2.9 4 7 5.7 7
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 15 19 13 9 16 17 10 10 15 15 10 8 12 13 11 10
    % Succ 75.0   95.0 65.0   45.0 84.2   89.5 52.6   52.6 83.3   83.3 55.6   44.4 70.6   76.5 64.7   58.8
    Ave Error 1.5   0.9 2.3   2.4 1.3   1.1 2.2   2.3 1.3   1.4 2.2   2.3 1.5   1.6 1.9   2.1
    Net Error -1.3   0.0 0.5   0.4 -1.0   0.3 1.0   0.8 -0.7   0.5 1.1   1.2 -0.9   0.7 0.7   1.0
    Std Dev 0.9   0.6 1.8   1.7 1.0   0.7 1.8   1.7 0.8   0.7 1.8   1.8 0.7   0.9 1.8   1.8

    Night Time Forecast
    Updated: 13-12-17 at 9:00 pm
    Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
    ± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
    Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    13-12-17 -1   1 4   4 0   2 5   6 -2   0 4   4 -3   -1 5   5
    12-12-17 2 1.2 1 6 2.2 5 1   1 4   4 -1   -1 4   5 -3   0 3   4
    11-12-17 -4 -1.5 -1 2 1.2 3 1 1.2 2 5 2.2 6 0   2 4   4 -1   2 4   6
    10-12-17 -3 -2.6 -1 3 0.7 3 -3 -1.5 -1 2 1.2 3 -1 1.2 0 6 2.2 6 -1   2 3   4
    09-12-17 -5 -0.7 -2 3 0.8 2 -5 -2.6 -1 2 0.7 2 -2 -1.5 0 2 1.2 4 -2 1.2 1 5 2.2 6
    08-12-17 -3 -1.1 -1 3 1.9 3 -5 -0.7 -2 2 0.8 3 -1 -2.6 1 4 0.7 3 -1 -1.5 0 2 1.2 3
    07-12-17 -2 0.3 1 3 11.0 2 -3 -1.1 0 3 1.9 3 -3 -0.7 -1 3 0.8 4 -1 -2.6 2 3 0.7 3
    06-12-17 9 8.7 8 12 9.4 12 -2 0.3 2 3 11.0 3 -3 -1.1 1 3 1.9 3 -3 -0.7 0 1 0.8 3
    04-12-17 2 6.7 4 8 7.3 9 5 8.7 6 11 9.4 10 9 0.3 9 11 11.0 13 -1 -1.1 2 3 1.9 3
    03-12-17 0 1.8 2 8 8.2 8 2 6.7 3 8 7.3 8 6 8.7 5 10 9.4 10 7 0.3 9 9 11.0 10
    02-12-17 3 4.7 5 7 5.3 8 0 1.8 2 8 8.2 8 2 6.7 4 8 7.3 8 4 8.7 5 10 9.4 10
    01-12-17 1 1.6 2 7 3.0 6 4 4.7 5 8 5.3 8 1 1.8 3 9 8.2 8 2 6.7 3 8 7.3 8
    30-11-17 1 0.5 0 6 1.2 5 2 1.6 2 7 3.0 6 3 4.7 4 7 5.3 8 2 1.8 4 9 8.2 9
    29-11-17 -1 0.1 0 3 4.1 4 2 0.5 2 5 1.2 5 2 1.6 3 7 3.0 6 4 4.7 3 8 5.3 8
    28-11-17 2 2.2 2 6 4.2 3 -1 0.1 0 3 4.1 1 2 0.5 -1 5 1.2 2 2 1.6 1 7 3.0 5
    27-11-17 -1 1.9 2 6 7.7 6 3 2.2 4 5 4.2 6 -1 0.1 1 4 4.1 4 1 0.5 2 5 1.2 6
    26-11-17 3 2.9 3 7 5.7 8 1 1.9 3 6 7.7 6 2 2.2 3 5 4.2 6 -1 0.1 2 4 4.1 5
    25-11-17 1 1.5 2 6 4.5 5 2 2.9 1 7 5.7 7 1 1.9 4 6 7.7 6 1 2.2 3 4 4.2 3
    24-11-17 -2 -0.4 1 6 6.0 5 1 1.5 2 7 4.5 6 2 2.9 2 7 5.7 8 2 1.9 5 6 7.7 7
    23-11-17 -2 1.4 3 6 13.1 6 -2 -0.4 1 6 6.0 5 1 1.5 2 7 4.5 6 2 2.9 4 7 5.7 7
    22-11-17 4 6.6 11 9 14.0 11 -1 1.4 5 7 13.1 6 -1 -0.4 2 6 6.0 6 2 1.5 3 7 4.5 6
    Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
    # Succ 13 18 11 10 13 16 12 11 13 11 12 11 12 10 11 12
    % Succ 65.0   90.0 55.0   50.0 68.4   84.2 63.2   57.9 72.2   61.1 66.7   61.1 70.6   58.8 64.7   70.6
    Ave Error 1.7   0.9 2.6   2.5 1.8   1.4 2.2   2.5 1.8   2.0 1.6   1.7 1.7   2.4 1.6   1.7
    Net Error -1.5   0.3 0.3   0.1 -1.5   0.4 0.4   0.2 -0.5   0.8 1.4   1.5 -0.5   1.2 1.2   1.4
    Std Dev 1.3   0.7 2.1   2.1 1.2   0.9 1.7   1.7 1.9   1.8 1.2   1.0 1.8   1.9 1.1   1.1

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